Congress + Allies = Bulls are Back

Hi

Its been a long time since, i have written something on this page of mine and when i see the outcome of the elections, it gave a support to my claims of thinking long term. We have seen the most outstanding election results in favor of Congress, specially Dr. Singh. Singh is King indeed.

As i have always been saying that we should be thinking long term, the chosen govt will ensure that whatever i was saying is correct. In the coming 5 years, we may see the ups and the downs, but i can assure you on one thing. A rupee invested in the start of 2009 will be rupees 10 by the time these 5 years are over.

Its time to choose carefully. Stocks which are heavy weights, stock which are down almost 50 to 60 percent from their lifetime highs. I believe infrastructure sector and its ancillaries will prove to be a good investment so consider choosing them along with the ones i have already mentioned in my previous posts.

I am tempted to predict that We will be witnessing a rally of about 2000 points on sensex in the coming week or two, could be the sharpest and fastest 2000 point rally. Lets see if i get this right or not.

Happy Investing......

Satyam : Riding a Tiger

The moment i read Mr. B Ramalinga Raju's letter to the board, my expression was oooooooooooooooooooooo Shhhhhhhttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt . How the hell did he carried it so long.

I think what he did is for the better of the company and the stakeholders. I hope the shareholders will stand by his decision. His life from today onwards will be nothing less then a living hell and knowing that what he did is nothing less then what we should call as Noble. I have not even a iota of doubt in my mind while pridicting that he may take a life ending step in the days to come. I hope his near and dear ones stand by him in this period and take care of him.

The facts he has revealed about the balance sheet of the company , the widening gaps in the revenues and inflated numbers are no less then a straw of hope for the company. I believe the corrective steps can be taken and the gaps will be bridged but am not sure how long will it take. or does the rest of the management is capable of it. I have no idea about the management of the company or its officials, but i sincerely beleive, that they will take some prudent steps to keep the satyam light alive. I am sure one of the three biggies ie infy, wipro and tcs will come forward to acquire satyam in the days to come. I think it will be a steal at these level.

I dont know, how come the auditors failed in their jobs. A BIG ???????????? lets see if sebi takes them into account too.

I sincerly believe that he did attempt to eliminate the gaps, but it was not to be. Not in a situation where no one exept him knows the actual position. I think, he should have entrusted someone to share what he called a tremedeous burden. But the second thought comes, it can never be possible that no one except him knows it. he named n number of people in his letter to board. Is he trying to save them and take all the credit to himself and become a martyr. I want to believe the second thought and it seems logical and practical.

I suspected something fishy about satyam and mentioned it in my last post, but i never thought that its a big whale circling the island. But the fact remains that IT HAPPENS ONLY IN INDIA.

I dont know what to write more.......... would like to see what the LAWS of the LAND does in this whole thing.

Below 10 K

Well, the market shows the sign of stability at around 10 k levels. I sincerely think that we have bottomed out at these levels but there is every chance of that the sensex may test the 8k levels very soon. We have political uncertainities, disturbed business environment , inflation risks, employee layoff scenerios and above all a fear of WAR with our good neighbours. All these conditions are not favorable for a good market run up, but that doesnt mean that everything has gone wrong here. If we closely watch the performances of all the sectors in this country , growth is still there. Even in a worst case scenerio we are not going below 7.5 GDP number and i can bet on that.

We have one or other bad stories everyday, which makes the matter more complicated. Even when good companies and Examplorary Corporate Governence Starwarts like Satyam shows weak decision making , doubt definately comes into mind of the investors. There are un necessary rounds of so called rumors which hampers the sentiments more then ever. Look at the case of ICICI Bank. The stock has taken the beating like anything but that doesnt means that the Biggest Private Sector Bank in this country is going bankrupt just because the share price is not reflecting the true value of the stock. We have to understand that these are BIG players and small hiccups wont affect them. Yes, they can slow them down for a quarter or two, but it will not be a surprise if we see them shifting gears real fast.

As i have said in my earlier posts, the big picture is always LONG TERM. There are good oppurtunities to buy at these level. The BIGGGG companies of India are selling at cheap rates, some are even trading at values which is less then the book value of the company. There were days when stocks use to surge upward just at a news of a new land sale or a new acquisition. Those days are gone and we wont see them any near time in future. But there is always a steady growth.

I am saying it again, Think LONG really long, go for value picks at these levels, go for stocks trading below Book Values, go for good dividend paying stocks and you will see these investments made today will earn you a fortune in the years to come.

Happy Investing.........

Cheerssssssss

Below 12 K

WOW!!!!!! its happening so fast. One can not even think what to do. Well for me ----- its time to BUY. I dont know why, but i still feel the India Story is Intact. look around, do you see any slowdown. Do u see any panic, or something that might disturb the normal course of this country. Well, i dont see anything like that. The only thing which i am feeling right now is some outflow of money. The money which is not ours (frankly). those who have invested , are taking it back slowly and steadyly. I hope you will agree with me. What we are left with is our own money and this is not going to get out of our pockets in this fashion. and yes, if the money is going out , its simply because it is needed somewhere else and not in our markets as of now. Its just a matter of time, that they will start investing again and raising the bar like they did in the last 4 years. Ask any long term investor, has he lost in this market. I am sure he will say NO.

I wanted to make a report of various things regarding our robust economy. But i couldn't make it. My apologies. i ll do it once its settled. Right now its time to choose, pick and invest.

My favorite stocks as i mentioned in my earlier posts are more cheaper now. Special mention to NRE COKE. This stock has taken the beating like anything. be it market conditions. be it price of coke in the market or be it the internal family feud of the promoters. But i would say this stock is not about coke mining its about gold mining. Just wait and watch. Invest now in this stock and it will go like anything. I hope you will agree. Today close is at below 50.

One last thing, its takes a BIG HEART to book losses, but mind you, if you dont book the losses, the losses will book you. So if you think there is someting wrong with a particular stock fundamentally or techinically depends on how you analyse it, i would say BOOK your loss and put it somewhere else. someone who is sitting on cash right now. i would suggest Invest it now, at least with a 2 year time period. you have a very good chance of doubling it very soon.

Would love to have your comments.

and i ll write in details very soon.

Till then

happy investing.

Below 14 K

Frankly , i didnt expected in the wildest of my dreams that the market would go down to 13800 levels so soon. Since my last post, the market has shed another 1000 + points. My favourite stocks like GUJNRE, RELNAT, NTPC, BHARTI AIRTEL,HINOIL are more cheaper now, surely in the BUY mode. I would like to add few banking stocks like ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank as a pure buy at these levels. M & M below 550 levels is again a steal.

If someone is sitting in cash, its time to invest 60 % out of it, and then he or she will see the magic of market compounding.

I asked to invest 20 % of the cash at the below 15 K levels. I am suggesting to invest the 60 % of the remaining at these levels.

I still belive there is nothing wrong with the economy, Just because the price of oil is going up , it doesnt mean that the nation has gone down to its knees. Even at a annual growth of 7 percent and inflation level of 16 percent , we are strong.

Well i dont have much words to write much. I am still bullish on the INDIA Story and will continue to believe so.. I hope readers would accord with me.

Wait for a detailed report from my side on the INDIA story, till then Happy Investing.

Below 15 K

Well, as expected it went down and opened in the below 15 k territory. I can see the value of the stocks tumbling. Those who have purchased yesterdays would be regretting the decision today, as they are more cheaper now.

I guess its time for the day traders to reveiw their stocks. Go with a tight stop loss. That the only thing i can advise.

For a long term investor, its time to start picking up. Its time to invest 20 % of the cash that you hold. Wait for another fall of 500 point and shop for another 20 %. Keep the rest 60 % in hand for the time being.

Lets see how the week spans out. I expect it to be aroung 14500 levels by the end of this week.

Cheeeersssss

15 k Levels

Dear Readers!

The market has shed 1000 points in less then 10 days, doesnt surprise me. You know why? Beacuse the stock i like are more cheaper now. so go ahead and start shopping. I ll still stick to stocks mentioned in my earlier post.

Its time to stay away from the reality stocks and shift the focus towards the technology stocks.
Technology stocks are at good levels to buy. In case the market falls down more by about 500 to 1000 points, i ll go shopping for these stocks.

I am expecting 14500 levels on the sensex in the coming weeks and then a pull back to around 16000 levels. The problem here is that we are in a bear phase for a couple of months time. Whatever, you are going to purchase, you will regret, because the same shall be available at a cheaper price on the next day. But that doesnt mean that we should not buy. If you have bought it, stick to it and as i was saying in my last post also , THINK LONG, really LONG. The great INDIA story has just begun.

Cheers!